Royce Taylor
Region: Lake Grace, south-east Western Australia
Commodities: Mixed cropping, sheep
Farming area: 5000 hectares
Rainfall: 325 mm
Email: annaroyce@esat.net.au
Phone: 08 9865 1507
I was talking to a grower group about climate change. A lot of them are convinced it’s just another little cycle and hoping it’s going to pass by, just a bad couple of years. Look, I do too, but we have to stop hoping and get smarter, and try and farm with it rather than against it.
Hear what Royce has to say about:
- Farming with less rainfall and more variability
- Making decisions
- Using zero-till and break crop
- Tightening the belt and keeping good breeding stock in dry times
- Cropping less in bad years
- Hoping for more accurate weather forecasts
- Managing the good years, and the bad
- New grain varieties
- Climate Champion Program
Farming with less rainfall and more variability
I bought the farm in 3 stages, beginning in 1991. First we bought 3700 hectares from the family farm. Now we’ve got 5000 hectares and it’s all expanded from the original family farm. About 3200 hectares is useable.
It’s near Lake Grace, about 4 hours south-east of Perth. It’s typical, flat Western Australian wheat country. We have a boundary with the lake and its spectacular white cliffs.
Two-thirds of the farm, about 3300 hectares, is for mixed cropping—wheat, barley, a bit of canola, and occasionally break crops of peas. The other third, about 1700 hectares, is merino sheep.
The rainfall has been variable since I returned here after going to school and university. We’ve had 2 or 3 droughts, but nothing this bad. Not getting any winter rainfall is just unheard of. It’s getting so variable, and it’s getting drier.
A lot of people are saying that it’s just a cycle, but our rainfall has decreased. If you look at the rainfall records over the last 100 years, there’s a steady decline of 20%.
About 325 mm is our average. In the growing season, we can normally rely on about 250 mm, from April to September/October. But Dad was down last year and he was shaking his head—he’d never seen it so dry at that time of the year.
Our extreme events have got worse. We had a huge hail storm in October 2005. And then a flood in January 2006, and about 3 months later we had 13 inches of rain in 2 days. We’re also getting a lot more early frosts.
Making decisions and adjusting as we go
We make decisions in principle but then we’ll be waiting to see what happens with the break, and adjust our plans according to the season.
I work out what I’m doing in each paddock in October with my agronomist. We do the financial review in February, making sure we can afford everything; reassess. That’s when we might trim up on fertilisers.
Wheat and barley generally go in regardless. Because they’re good safe crops, you can normally grow them reliably because they have better varieties.
Canola is an opportunistic crop, so if it’s not wet enough we don’t put it in. We look at our rainfall and subsoil moisture. If it’s nice and early—early May—we’ll put our canola in, and then peas.
Now I put my crops in earlier, but if it hasn’t rained by the middle of May, certain crops will get dropped and different varieties put in. If we don’t get that extra inch of rain, I’ll wait and see.
If it’s a dry start, we back off on our cropping area. We would need more land for the sheep if it’s going to be a slow start for pastures.
A few years ago I had planned to put in 2400 hectares of crop but dropped it back to 1600 hectares. It’s wise doing that rather than putting everything in, because otherwise it would just increase the losses.
Using zero-till and break crops
I’ve been using zero-till and cropping rotations since I began farming.
Zero-till is just a way better way of harvesting water. It creates a trench, and the water falls down into the bottom for the grain to get their roots into the wet area.
The rotations haven’t changed much—they are purely for controlling weeds and getting good pastures to put some nitrogen into the soil. Getting rid of the weeds is important for conserving subsoil moisture, and making sure there’s enough water for pasture.
We can make money out of break crops. I made money from peas in the past, but it’s opportunistic. I normally put them in about 1 June but if it’s not nice and wet, I won’t put them in.
There’s less soil erosion and good trash flow, so we can leave our stubbles in our paddocks. I try to retain all my stubble, and that helps retain moisture, given that this area is getting drier.
I haven’t changed a lot with my rotations and zero-till. I’m just trying to get smarter with my varieties and timing, and staying in touch with all the latest technologies and ideas.
Tightening the belt and keeping good breeding stock in dry times
It’s been dry, so people have sent sheep over east to sell them. But I managed to find some agistment for my ewes, because I could see the price was going to be high this year. I want to keep hold of good breeding stock.
We’ve got a long-term plan. If we do expand, we’ll lease and not buy. And we’re looking at expanding our off-farm investments—shovel some money out when we have a few good years.
Farming’s always going to be risky. We try to manage it and learn from previous years. Lately we’ve been learning very steeply, very quickly.
We have to use advice. Just process it, and try to make it fit your circumstances. My agronomist is great with cropping. I pay for his services and also for a financial advisor.
Normally I’ve got a full-time worker. But last year we tightened our belts, so there was no fencing or anything happening that costs money. We were just doing the basic day-to-day running, so I handle that myself. I’m busy but I’m saving some money as well.
Cropping less in bad years
I’m always prepared to reassess. For instance, with my sheep flock: if I know in May that it was going to be a dry late winter and early spring, I’d back right off on cropping, probably shut down a little bit.
Cropping has been so risky in the last few years. It costs $200-plus per hectare to put a crop in, whereas sheep are a lot safer. The returns aren’t as great in a good year, but they’re stable.
This year we can trim up on fertilisers a little bit, to basic maintenance rates.
You have to be pretty smart in shutting down during the bad years, and then in the good years, to go for it. No crop would get our money back last year. The sheep helped us out a fair bit, with good sheep prices and wool still hanging in there.
You can try to make something out of a bad situation. The pea crop that I’ve just mowed will provide a bit more feed for the sheep. And rather than let the oat crop die and go to seed, I’ll spray it to keep all the goodness in the straw and be of more value to the sheep.
Hoping for more accurate weather forescasts
I reckon everyone would have at least half a dozen websites that they get onto, looking at different forecasts and trying to find the best one.
The weather and forecasting sites I look at are all on the Climate Kelpie website. I use the Bureau of Meteorology site as well. I also use a US site that gives a 14-day prediction of rainfall for Australia—it uses maps to display the information.
Everyone looks at the long-term forecasts. Farmers, we talk about the weather and that’s all we do. We watch the weather, we listen to the 4-day forecast every day if we’re in the ute or in earshot of a radio.
We can rely on the forecasts pretty much to 2 weeks out. Outside of that, they really struggle to be of much help, but it’s getting better all the time.
I’m not confident in mid-range weather forecast, probably less so when they got it as badly wrong as they had last year.
There is a lot of improvement in the accuracy of forecasting that needs to happen before we can make big business decisions based on the information that we receive.
I believe more funding needs to be put into research and resources so the information that we receive is more reliable. Then decisions can be made on this information with confidence.
Managing the good years, and the bad
It’s probably more important to manage the bad years. I think you have to be pretty smart in shutting down in the bad years. Otherwise you just increase your losses.
The year I planned to put in about 2400 hectares and I went down to 1600 hectares—that decision saved a hell of a lot of money.
Sometimes you do the right thing and it doesn’t work. Last year [2010], we had a good break and the forecasts said above-average spring rainfall. So we put in canola, trying to make a little bit more money, and it came unstuck.
It came up, looked good, and established really well. And just for the lack of rain, the plants withered and died.
In a good year when the paddock’s looking good, we can graze more sheep on a single pasture. If pastures are growing well, it means we can put in another paddock of cereals in their place.
I’ll also concentrate on improving pastures for sheep so we can plant more clovers and medics (like clover but suited for heavier country). As well as providing better pasture for sheep, it fixes nitrogen into the soil, so the following year that paddock’s better for planting crops.
In good years, I had peas, lupins, barley and everything. I had the whole program in and it worked well.
You can tinker with things a little bit, but at the end of the day, the rain’s the most important thing—if we get more rain, everything grows better.
New grain varieties
I think there’s going to be a world-wide shortage of food. India and China are booming and people want a better lifestyle, and they’ll want our grain for stockfeed.
Ethanol is huge in the States, and grain is used for more industries, so that’s a bonus. I think grain prices will go up, but then there’s the drought and climate change.
We need more research into drought- and frost-resistant grain varieties as well as into accuracy of weather forecasting. I read GRDC information on variety trials. I’m keen to get more trials happening in this area.
Climate Champion Program
I joined Climate Champions because I’m interested in the weather, and I want to learn from other people’s experiences.
I can pass that knowledge on to mates around Lake Grace. The local grower group wants better forecasts, out to 3 and 4 months. If it doesn’t rain we’re still not going to be making much money, but it might stop our losses.
A lot of the growers are convinced it’s just another little cycle but when you quote a couple of figures showing our rainfall has reduced, they go: “Oh is it that much?”
I think they know that it is getting drier and hoping it’s going to pass by and just a bad couple of years. I do too - I’m an optimistic person but it’s starting to wear me down. But we have to stop hoping, and try and farm with it, rather than against it.
Interview date: 4 October 2010
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