AussieGRASS

AussieGRASS provides a 3-month grass production forecast across Australia down to a 5-kilometre grid scale.

Seasonal Crop Shire Yield Forecasts

This forecasting tool provides estimates of cereal yields (e.g. wheat and sorghum) from whole shires.

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• What this tool does

• Inputs

• Outputs

• Reliability

• History

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• Where to get it

• Cost

Read about our selection process for including tools on Climate Kelpie [link to page of same name].

Who this tool is for

Decision makers at regional, state and national level, such as government bodies/agencies, bulk handlers of grain, feedlot companies, fertilizer companies, and the insurance industry.

Questions this tool answers

• What is the progressive seasonal outlook for cereals production for this shire in the context of rainfall to date?

• How does the likely shire yield of cereals this year compare to other years?

What this tool does

This forecasting tool provides probabilistic cereal crop yield predictions for whole shires by combining:

• crop simulation models – based on estimates of available soil moisture and rainfall to date; and

• climate forecasting – based on current Southern Oscillation Index [link to Queensland – weather and climate drivers page] conditions

The information can be used for:

• forward buying or selling of commodities and deciding on future contracts

• shifting of resources (bulk handling of grain) from one region to another

• policy decisions such as the evaluation of exceptional circumstances

• assessing the likely crop grade for the coming season

Inputs

This forecasting tool uses crop simulation modelling and Southern Oscillation Index projections. No other inputs are required.

Outputs

This tool can be used to produce monthly outlooks starting just prior to sowing.

en; overflow-y: hidden;">A monthly Seasonal Crop Outlook report is available on the Department of Primary Industries and Fishing website [link to www.dpi.qld.gov.au/fieldcrops].

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Image description: Cover of Seasonal Crop Outlook - wheat

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Reliability

This forecasting tool is limited to the projections that can be made based on the Southern Oscillation Index [link to Queensland – weather and climate drivers page]. As the climate changes, these projections will become less reliable.

The tool is not designed for use at the field or farm scale because it does not include paddock details such as soil type, starting soil water or the time of sowing.

History

This forecasting tool was initially used on the Department of Primary Industries and Fishing website [link to www.dpi.qld.gov.au/fieldcrops] to produce the Seasonal Crop Outlook reports.

It is now also used on the National Agricultural Monitoring System website [link to http://www.nams.gov.au].

Support available

Where to get it

The actual forecasting tool is not available to farmers, however the monthly Seasonal Crop Outlook reports are available from:

Department of Primary Industries and Fishing [link to www.dpi.qld.gov.au/fieldcrops]

Information about this forecasting tool can be obtained from:

Andries Potgieter [email andries.potgieter@dpi.qld.gov.au], Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fishing.

Phone: 07 4688 1417

Cost

The actual forecasting tool is not freely available but the regular outlook reports created by the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fishing using this tool are free.

Who this tool is for
Questions this tool answers
What this tool does
Inputs
Outputs
Reliability
History
Support available
Where to get it
Cost

Read about our selection process for including tools on Climate Kelpie.

Who this tool is for

Land managers, fire management agencies and policymakers across Australia.

Questions this tool answers

What is the pasture growth outlook for my region/shire [at 5 km scale]?
What is the current total standing dry matter in my region / shire [at 5 km scale]?
Where in my region are areas of very low grass cover [at 5 km scale]?

What this tool does

AussieGRASS provides a 3-month grass production forecast across Australia down to a 5-kilometre grid scale. This allows you to view the forecast for your local area.

This web-based tool:

is a spatial implementation of the GRASP grass production model
is updated monthly based on the Southern Oscillation Index phase
provides experimental forecasts up to 12 months ahead based on the International Research Institute's consensus forecasts of El Niño state

Inputs

AussieGRASS uses the following data:

climate data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s SILO database
stock numbers from Australian Bureau of Statistics
macropod (kangaroo and wallaby) numbers from state government agencies
soil data based on the Atlas of Australian Soils (with some calibration from the Australian Soil Resource Information System)
tree density (remotely sensed)
fire scars from Department of Land Information, WA
calibration data from rapid mobile data collection means such as NOAA, MODIS, LANDSAT, radar and gravity satellites and miscellaneous sources such as inflows to dams

Outputs

Rainfall and pasture growth maps are freely available on The Long Paddock.

Figures 1-5 below are examples:

Pasture grass fire risk in Queensland

Figure 1: Pasture grass fire risk in Queensland

Pasture biomass in Queensland

Figure 2: Pasture biomass in Queensland

Figure 3: Pasture biomass in Queensland relative to historical records

Figure 4: Pasture growth in Queensland

Figure 5: Rainfall in Queensland relative to historical records

Reliability

Data is accurate down to a 5-km scale. Good correlations have been found with independent observations, but forecasts should be used with caveats at small-scale level because:

some errors are present in the total grazing pressure
a lack of rain gauges in some rangeland areas means some data points are missing

Geographical areas

AussieGRASS has been field checked in:

northern Western Australia
South Australia
Northern Territory (especially tropical savannas)
Queensland (all main pasture regions)
New South Wales (rangeland areas)

Climate

AussieGRASS is linked to the Southern Oscillation Index phase which varies in accuracy:

high accuracy on the east coast
reducing accuracy moving west (both tropical and temperate regions)

History

AussieGRASS has been operational for more than 15 years, and is supported by developers from the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence and staff in several state agencies.

Managing Climate Variability has helped sponsor its uptake in the NT and SA.