Seasonal Crop Shire Yield Forecast

The Seasonal Crop Shire Yield Forecasts are estimates of cereal yields for whole shires.

Read about our selection process for including tools on Climate Kelpie

 

Who this tool is for

The forecasts are at the shire scale, so are useful to decision-makers at regional, state and national level, such as government agencies, bulk handlers of grain, feedlot companies, fertiliser companies, and the insurance industry.

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Questions this tool answers

•What is the progressive seasonal outlook for cereals production for this shire in the context of rainfall to date?
•How does the likely shire yield of cereals this year compare to other years?
  • What is the progressive seasonal outlook for cereals production for this shire in the context of rainfall to date?
  • How does the likely shire yield of cereals this year compare to other years?

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What this tool does

The forecasts are probabilistic cereal crop yield predictions for whole shires. They are determined by combining:

  • crop simulation models based on estimates of available soil moisture and rainfall to date
  • climate forecasts – based on current Southern Oscillation Index conditions

The forecasts can be used for:

  • forward buying or selling of commodities and deciding on future contracts
  • shifting of resources (bulk handling of grain) from one region to another
  • making policy decisions such as the evaluation of Exceptional Circumstances
  • assessing the likely crop grade for the coming season

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Inputs

The forecasts are presented as reports. No inputs are required.

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Outputs

Seasonal Crop Shire Yield Forecasts are in the form of reports showing graphs of the likely yield per shire and trajectories compared to previous years.

Australia-wide weekly reports are free to download from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Monthly seasonal crop outlooks for wheat in Queensland are available for free download (as a PDF) from the Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation.

See Figure 1 for an example.

Screenshot of Seasonal Wheat Outlook for Oct 2014

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Reliability

The forecasts are partly based on the Southern Oscillation Index. As the climate changes, these climate projections will become less reliable.

The forecasts are not designed for use at the paddock or farm scale because they do not include paddock details such as soil type, starting soil water and time of sowing.

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History

This forecasting tool was developed for a regional commodity forecasting project by Andries Potgieter, Graeme Hammer and Al Doherty, at the former Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit.

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Support available

Contact Andries Potgieter at the Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation with questions about the Monthly seasonal crop outlooks for wheat for Queensland.

Email: a.potgieter@uq.edu.au

Phone: 07 4688 1417

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Where to get it

Download PDFs of the Monthly seasonal crop outlooks for wheat in Queensland, for free, from the Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation.

You can also contact Andries Potgieter for information about the forecasting tool.

Email: a.potgieter@uq.edu.au

Phone: 07 4688 1417

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Cost

The monthly seasonal crop outlooks are free.

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            [topic] => Likely seasonal shire yields
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            [summary_commodity] => Grains
            [summary_region] => All major cropping regions
            [tabledisplayscale] => 0
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JRegistry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [pathwaypage] => 0 [pathwaytype] => 1 [scale] => [topic] => Likely seasonal shire yields [cost] => Outputs from the tool are free [summary_commodity] => Grains [summary_region] => All major cropping regions [tabledisplayscale] => 0 [tablesubpagetitle] => Page ) )

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