Yield Prophet®

Yield Prophet® is an online crop production package that helps grain growers match their crop inputs to potential yield, for a given season, to maximise profit and minimise climate and soil water risk.

Read about our selection process for including tools on Climate Kelpie

 

Who this tool is for

Dryland and irrigation grain growers throughout Australia.
All major varieties of wheat, barley and sorghum, and to a lesser extent, canola and oats, are supported.

Dryland and irrigation grain growers and advisors throughout Australia.

All major varieties of wheat and barley - and, to a lesser extent, canola, oats and sorghum - are supported.

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Questions this tool answers

  • Given the seasonal conditions to date, and historic climatic conditions, what is the yield potential of my crop under current management and with unlimited nitrogen supply?
  • What is the likelihood of my crop being affected by frost, heat shock and/or water logging?
  • How does the yield potential of my crop change as crop inputs (e.g. nitrogen) and agronomic decisions are changed?
  • Where in the soil profile are my crop resources and what affect will that have on the yield potential of my crop?
  • How are the effects of climate change likely to affect my yield potential and how should I respond to this?

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What this tool does

Yield Prophet® is a web-based crop production model which, for a given season, helps growers match paddock-specific potential yield with crop inputs.

It incorporates:

  • soil test results
  • climatic conditions to date within the current season
  • crop management actions
  • historic climate data

Yield Prophet® is built upon the crop production model APSIM.

By modelling crop growth and available water and nitrogen, the model estimates whether the crop is stressed by a lack of water or nitrogen, and therefore potential yield reductions.

Using historic climate data, Yield Prophet then simulates crop growth and resource availability from the day you generate the report, until the end of the season.

The reports, which match paddock-specific potential yield with crop inputs, can help you avoid over- or under-investing in your crop.

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Inputs

Yield Prophet® combines 6 key crop-growing components:

  • a soil test prior to planting
  • a soil characterisation
  • historical and current climate data for the nearest Bureau of Meteorology weather station, or current climate data from your own weather station (optional)
  • paddock-specific rainfall data recorded by you or your own weather station (optional)
  • crop details
  • a record of fertiliser and irrigation applications during the growing season

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Outputs

Yield Prophet® produces a set of comprehensive reports, based on your crop management and input scenarios, in- and out-of-season.

In-season reports:

  • Crop report: the most commonly used report – various outputs relating to individual crops. The snapshot report tells you about: potential yield range; available water and nitrogen; incidence of nitrogen and water stress; estimated and forecast progress of the crop; probability and incidence of water logging, frost and heat shock; and climate forecasts and their effect on yield.
  • Nitrogen comparison report: effects of different nitrogen application decisions (quantity/timing) on yield
  • Nitrogen profit report: profits according to nitrogen management decisions
  • Irrigation comparison report: effects of irrigation decisions (quantity) on yield
  • Irrigation profit report: profits according to irrigation management decisions

Out-of-season reports:

  • Sowing by variety: effects of different sowing dates and cultivars on likely crop yield
  • Sowing opportunity: effects of sowing date on yield, and frost and heat shock risk
  • Fallow monitoring: estimated soil moisture and nitrogen levels
  • Stubble management: effects of tillage and grazing decisions on soil nitrogen and moisture
  • Climate change: potential effects of climate change on crop yields in 2030
  • Climate adaptation: compare crop potential under climate change using current practices and alternatives
View sample reports by logging onto this website as a visitor - click 'View Trial Paddocks'.

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Reliability

Yield Prophet® reports are always current: its modelling is run daily.

Its accuracy is heavily influenced by the how well the initial soil test results and soil characterisation match your crop production areas.

Most major varieties are supported.

Results are applicable at the paddock scale.

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History

Yield Prophet® has been supported through the Grains Research & Development Corporation and the Managing Climate Variability program.

Research, development and support services are provided collaboratively by CSIRO and BCG (the Birchip Cropping Group).

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Support available

Yield Prophet® is provided as an online subscription service by BCG.

A coordinator provides online and phone help to subscribers.

Workshops are available for groups of subscribers.

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Where to get it

Subscribe online: Yield Prophet

Email Tim McClelland, Yield Prophet coordinator: yieldprophet@bcg.org.au

Phone: 03 54 922 787 or 0400 090 659

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Cost

Subscription is based on number of paddocks. The cost covers log-in online, support, and workshops and training sessions.

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