Global climate models
Global climate models are used for forecasting weather, understanding climate and projecting climate change.
They aim to simulate the interactions of the world’s atmosphere, oceans and land surfaces, so they are known as dynamical models.
They are used to calculate and predict climate patterns or long-term forecasts. Some of them are also used to predict climate change, using different greenhouse gas level scenarios.
What are global climate models, and how do they work? - This is a great presentation from NOAA Climate Services.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology's forecasts take into account a range of global climate models including:
- POAMA-2 (Australia)
- ACCESS - The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (Australia)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (Europe)
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society (USA)
- Other global climate models
POAMA-2, or the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (version 2), is the Bureau of Meteorology’s global climate model for Australia.
The Bureau's ENSO wrap-up also offers regular up-to-date commentary on the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ACCESS is a national weather and climate forecasting system, based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model, but tailored to Australian needs.
It offers predictions of weather over the coming months and projections of the climate in coming decades.
Developed by the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), ACCESS is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, Australian universities and international partners.
Medium-, extended- and long-range weather forecasts, ocean analysis, tropical cyclone analysis, seasonal forecasts, and data services.
This centre links to the sites of the 31 member countries.
The International Research Institute provides the following forecasts relevant for Australia:
- Seasonal climate forecast – 6-month temperature and rainfall forecast, and past forecast data back to 1997
- El Niño - Southern Oscillation forecast – current forecast status of El Niño - Southern Oscillation conditions
- Atmospheric general circulation models – a 3-month summary and visualisation of temperature and rainfall forecast predicted by 10 climate models
- Seasonal climate forecast models – a 3-month summary and visualisation for temperature or rainfall
- Sea surface temperature forecast – a 6-month summary and visualisation of forecast sea surface temperature for the Pacific.
Other global climate models with varying levels of accuracy for Australia include:
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Japan)
- CFSv2 NCEP (USA)
- Seasonal outlook - This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the National Centers for Environmental Predictions coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2).
- APEC Climate Centre (Korea)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (Columbia University)
- Forecasts of Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), wind stress anomalies, and monthly NINO3 trajectories
- Predictions are for the next few seasons - forecasts of tropical Pacific SST anomalies have been made regularly at the LDEO, with a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model
JRegistry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [pathwaypage] => 1 [pathwaytype] => 0 [tabledisplayscale] => 0 [tabledisplaycost] => 0 [tabledisplaytopic] => 0 [tabledisplaymember] => 0 [tablesubpagetitle] => Page ) )
JRegistry Object ( [data:protected] => stdClass Object ( [pathwaypage] => 1 [pathwaytype] => 0 [scale] => [topic] => [member] => [cost] => [summary_commodity] => [summary_region] => [tabledisplayscale] => 0 [tabledisplaycost] => 0 [tabledisplaytopic] => 0 [tabledisplaymember] => 0 [tablesubpagetitle] => Page ) )