Global climate models

Global climate models are used for forecasting weather, understanding climate and projecting climate change.

They aim to simulate the interactions of the world’s atmosphere, oceans and land surfaces, so they are known as dynamical models.

They are used to calculate and predict climate patterns or long-term forecasts. Some of them are also used to predict climate change, using different greenhouse gas level scenarios.

What are global climate models, and how do they work? - This is a great presentation from NOAA Climate Services.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology's forecasts take into account a range of global climate models including:

 

POAMA-2 – Australian Bureau of Meteorology

POAMA-2, or the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (version 2), is the Bureau of Meteorology’s global climate model for Australia.

Managing Climate Variability, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO worked together to improve previous versions, and now POAMA is used for official Bureau seasonal forecasts.

It produces monthly seasonal climate outlooks, and a suite of new seamless experimental products are also available on the POAMA research website on a trial basis.

The Bureau's ENSO wrap-up also offers regular up-to-date commentary on the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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ACCESS - The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator

ACCESS is a national weather and climate forecasting system, based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model, but tailored to Australian needs. 

It offers predictions of weather over the coming months and projections of the climate in coming decades.

Developed by the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), ACCESS is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, Australian universities and international partners.

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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (Europe)

Medium-, extended- and long-range weather forecasts, ocean analysis, tropical cyclone analysis, seasonal forecasts, and data services.

This centre links to the sites of the 31 member countries.

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International Research Institute for Climate and Society (USA)

The International Research Institute provides the following forecasts relevant for Australia:

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Other global climate models

Other global climate models with varying levels of accuracy for Australia include:

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